The ongoing tug-of-war in US trade policies is posing one of the gravest dangers to the world’s multilateral trading system. As the US gears up for the presidential election on November 5, 2024, it appears unlikely that the counter-multilateralism stance will change, regardless of who takes the White House.
Under former President Donald Trump’s Making America Great Again (MAGA) slogan, the US launched a unilateral trade offensive targeting the World Trade Organization (WTO). This included imposing hefty tariffs on over $350 billion worth of imports from the Chinese mainland, as well as additional tariffs on steel and aluminum globally. These actions effectively paralyzed the WTO appellate body, disrupting international trade norms.
The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) stated in its 2018 President Trade Policy Agenda that the existing multilateral trading rules were \"directed to the US,\" which led to a significant downturn in China-US trade relations in the following years. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump even promised to impose staggering 60% tariffs on imports from the Chinese mainland and 10-20% tariffs on all global imports.
President Joe Biden, while advocating for a \"return to multilateralism,\" has largely maintained the unilateral tariffs established by his predecessor. In addition, Biden has introduced new tariffs on Chinese solar panels, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs). Beyond tariffs, Biden is pushing for a broader trade and investment strategy centered on a \"resilient supply chain\" and a \"small yard and high fence\" approach. This strategy is leading to a fundamental fragmentation of world trade, emphasizing value-based partnerships and alliances.
He Weiwen, a senior fellow at the Center for China and Globalization, warns that these policies are not just affecting the US and China but are also reshaping global trade dynamics in ways that could undermine the collaborative frameworks that have been established over decades.
As the election approaches, the future of global trade remains uncertain, with multilateralism hanging in the balance amidst rising protectionist policies.
